Israel’s strategy over the last several years has been to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria. This has come to be known as the “campaign between the wars” or “war between the wars.” The concept is that Iran’s tentacles in Syria, which have grown rapidly in the last decade, can be cut off one by one and Tehran may eventually stop regrowing them.

But there are questions about what the overall effect of this will be when the next conflict emerges. While Israel has been doing important joint training with Western and local partners, such as the US Air Force and Marines, the next conflict always looms. That conflict could be a multi-front war. 
Iranian media is aware of this and an interesting article this weekend at Tasnim News seems to reveal the extent of Iranian discussion. While Iranian comments last week said Israel was doomed to destruction, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah made similar threats, this is clearly propaganda.

The real discussion is done behind the scenes and is about Israel’s strategy and tactics. Iran must weigh this question before it makes any moves in Syria, or even in Iraq where it has brought in drones and ballistic missiles. Reports say that while Tehran may have known about its proxies conspiring to attack the Iraqi prime minister, they were not behind the assassination attempt.
Additional reports, after the UAE’s foreign minister went to Syria for the first time in a decade, say that an Iranian IRGC Quds Force figure may have been chided for an attack on US forces at Tanf garrison. 

THIS IS the situation Iran finds itself in this week. So what is the level of discussions? 
“The dangerous thing for the Zionists is that despite the military superiority of the Zionist regime under the constant support of the United States, the resistance was able to achieve historic and strategic victories that completely changed the equations of conflict in the region and created new equations that govern the region,” Iran’s Tasnim says. “We are seeing this shift in the balance of power in the region, from Lebanon to Palestine and Iraq and Yemen.” 
This means Iran thinks that it has gained a major advantage in recent years. This despite the former US administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. Iran actually achieved major success in Kirkuk in 2017 and in Albukamal in 2018 – and then later in southern Syria and via moving drones and assets to Syria – and the US policy did not prevent this. Israel’s war between the wars was supposed to reduce the entrenchment and movement of precision guided munitions to Hezbollah.  
Iran acknowledges that Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz has said that “Israel would never allow Hezbollah and its Iranian allies to target Israel’s military superiority,” Tasnim notes. “The Israeli war minister’s [Defense Minister Gantz] remarks came as a justification for the anti-Syrian regime’s aggression. The Zionists believe that a large part of the power of the Syrian resistance army comes from Hezbollah in Lebanon and that Hezbollah’s influence in Syria must be stopped.” READ MORE

Iran and Hezbollah analyze Israel’s ‘war between the wars’

Josh Toupos

This post was originally published on this site